What a year. The cancellation of March Madness last spring truly signified the beginning of a global event, at least in the eyes of many Americans. And while the sports world has done a lot to try and push through the COVID-19 pandemic — with the NBA bubble, NFL contact tracing, and college football just kind of powering through — a whole year without an NCAA Men’s Basketball Champion just felt wrong.
Now, March is Mad again. I have a feeling that this year’s bracket is going to be crazier than usual, not just because championship-frequents Duke and Kentucky aren’t even in the Field of 68 (or even the Field of 72 as potential backups), but because of the obvious COVID-19 factor.
This is the first NCAA basketball tournament of its kind where a National Championship game might not even be played. A Cinderella team could race out to the Sweet Sixteen only to be sent home — not by another squad, but by a virus. It’s truly a crapshoot.
With that in mind, I have made a bracket. Is it correct, destined to win the $1 million a year for life Warren Buffet has promised if a true winner ever did emerge? Of course it is. How could I be wrong, when the odds of doing so are only 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808?
Big number, yes. And I know my bracket is flawed at its core, simply because of probability. But that won’t stop me from justifying every pick I’ve made, and I think I have a good reason for every selection. So when I mess up, I will feel nothing because I knew it was going to happen anyways.
While I base my picks around statistics and track records, don’t be surprised if the eye test or pure gut feeling comes into play, and I know that my eyes and gut are probably different than yours.
(By the way, if any of my First Four predictions are wrong, screw it. I will just ride the same way with whatever team comes out. Oh well.)
C’est la vie. Here we go.
The First Four
Wichita State (11) vs. Drake (11)
Pick: Wichita State
Why: Did you see how happy the Shockers were when they saw their name in the bracket? All I know is that if Wichita State plays with that kind of energy, they’ll be fine. Also, don’t forget that Wichita State is made for this. The last time the Shockers were in the First Four, they crushed Vanderbilt 70–50, then beat Arizona. And who can forget their incredible run in 2013? While a lot has changed, I simply think Wichita State, as the American Athletic Conference regular-season champion, is the better team.
Yes, Drake is very good. All of these teams (kind of) are. I’m not forgetting their impressive 18–0 start. But they have critical injuries to two of their best players: Roman Penn and ShanQuan Hemphill. This historic season for the Bulldogs — their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2008 — will come to a close on Thursday.
Michigan State (11) vs. UCLA (11)
Pick: Michigan State
Why: The Spartans are an interesting team. Beat Ohio State, Illinois, and Michigan? Check. Get blown out by Rutgers, Minnesota, and Maryland (twice)? Also check. So strange.
UCLA? One thing about the Bruins is they’ve played a lot of close games. Won some, lost some, but that is an advantage come postseason ball. The thing is, I don’t think this one will be close. It all depends on which Michigan State team comes out on Thursday night, and I think the Spartans are going to come out strong.
Mount St. Mary’s (16) vs. Texas Southern (16)
Pick: Mount St. Mary’s
Why: Just because. No, really, I think the Mountaineers are in the perfect spot to win. They play slow, churn out two-pointers, and stifle opponents defensively. Texas Southern is the opposite: fast and inaccurate. I’m taking the steadier team here.
Norfolk State (16) vs. Appalachian State (16)
Pick: Norfolk State
Why: Because I had to pick between putting both First Four Mountaineers or Spartans through, and I picked the Norfolk State Spartans (along with Michigan State). Appalachian State and Norfolk State are both undersized and shoot poorly, but the Spartans have an edge in experience and consistent winning, so I’m taking them.
Round of 64
West Region
Gonzaga (1) vs. Norfolk State (16)
Pick: Gonzaga
Why: The only reason the Zags would not win is if they unfortunately caught coronavirus and literally could not play. This is no Virginia-UMBC game. This is an undefeated Bulldogs squad who have defeated Iowa, Kansas, Virginia, West Virginia, and BYU twice. Only two possible losses all season. No debate here.
Oklahoma (8) vs. Missouri (9)
Pick: Oklahoma
Why: What a matchup. When I watched Oklahoma nearly pull a 20-point comeback against Kansas in the Big-12 Tournament, I was definitely rooting for them simply because of the craziness that would’ve ensued. Too bad, but the Sooners might really need to ride off of that effort, because they’ve currently lost five of their last six games. Granted, Texas and Oklahoma State made up over half of those Ls, but still.
Missouri, meanwhile, has been treading water since their fast start. In their last nine, they’re 3–6. Not great, but the teams they lost to were all tournament-caliber (sorry, Ole Miss). Neither team here has exceptional defense, and both haven’t shot well of late, so I’m rolling with the Sooners because they have All-Big 12 first-teamer Austin Reaves and have shown some life as of late.
Creighton (5) vs. UCSB (12)
Pick: Creighton
Why: Primed for an upset, you think? The Bluejays can shoot the lights out, with an effective field goal percentage of 55.7%. And Creighton’s Marcus Zegarowski, their “shooting star,” has knocked down 41.7% of his three-pointers. Creighton also has the potential to lose by a lot, as we saw in the Big East Tournament, but that was only their second double-digit loss of the season.
Don’t expect a lot of turnovers here, as both teams are top-20 in assist-to-turnover ratio. The Gauchos are going to play tough, as they play technically sound basketball, but against a Bluejays team that can run the score up fast, it won’t be enough. The Big East beats the Big West this time.
Virginia (4) vs. Ohio (13)
Pick: Virginia
Why: The trendy upset choice, the Ohio Bobcats have a strong case going for them. They just won the MAC championship, and Virginia has been dealing with COVID-19 issues that knocked the Cavaliers out of the ACC tourney just days ago. But Tony Bennet’s Virginia teams have always played well on defense, and I don’t see that changing no matter what. Don’t forget that the Bobcats nearly beat Illinois early on.
But Virginia was heating up at the right time before being forced to shut down. The Cavaliers very well could have won the ACC tournament, and KenPom has UVA at 11th overall (Ohio is 78th). This’ll be a close one, but I like Virginia with All-ACC players Sam Hauser and Jay Huff in the fold.
USC (6) vs. Wichita State (11)
Pick: USC
Why: Still no upsets, but in this game that’s fine. The Trojans are a team capable of pulling off upsets of their own, shooting 52.1% from the floor while holding opponents to 45.4%. The Shockers have played too many close games this season, and without a consistent scoring offense Wichita State will be out.
Kansas (3) vs. Eastern Washington (14)
Pick: Eastern Washington
Why: Surprise time! Kansas, though? The Jayhawks are a perennial favorite to win it all, and rarely lose in the first round. So, why now? Well, for one thing, Kansas is currently dealing with COVID-19, with David McCormack and Tristan Enaruna currently not with the team. Assuming all goes right the Jayhawks will have them back, but those are two important players and Kansas cannot afford to let coronavirus kick them out of two tournaments in a row. Kansas has been incredibly consistent all season long, so for COVID-19 to jostle them now may shake the Jayhawks up a bit.
Eastern Washington is no slouch, though. The Eagles can definitely put points on the board, shooting at 54.1% and can stay fresh with a deep bench. The thing about this game is that Kansas has been a second-half team all year, and if the Eagles can neutralize a coronavirus-maligned Kansas in the latter frame, Eastern Washington will advance in a stunner.
Oregon (7) vs. VCU (10)
Pick: Oregon
Why: The Ducks have won 11 of 14 since a COVID-19 pause in late January, and the PAC-12 regular-season champs have KenPom’s 16th ranked offense. VCU’s defense is going to play well, as it has all season, but Oregon just boasts more pure talent with five players averaging double-digit points per game. Close one, but Ducks win.
Iowa (2) vs. Grand Canyon (15)
Pick: Iowa
Why: Good luck, Antelopes! Grand Canyon has fought for their first ever NCAA tournament appearance, and that’s about all they’re going to get. Iowa’s Luka Garza, a Player of the Year favorite, is not going to be stopped.
East Region
Michigan (1) vs. Mount St. Mary’s (16)
Pick: Michigan
Why: Picking 1-seeds is still an easy choice. Michigan is one of the favorites to win it all thanks to being ranked the second-best team in the country by KenPom, and a couple of wins over top-10 opponents. The Big-10 is easily the best conference in basketball this year, and Michigan was the 1-seed in the Big-10 tournament. Holds some weight, right? Even without senior Isaiah Livers, they’ll be fine here.
LSU (8) vs. St. Bonaventure (9)
Pick: LSU
Why: I know 8-and-9 games are meant to be close by design, and this one will be no different. St. Bonaventure has five double-digit scorers and shares the wealth on both ends of the court, playing well-coached basketball and making few mistakes. LSU, on the other hand, has freshman Cameron Thomas in its corner — who averages 22.6 points a game — along with three other double-digit scorers.
St. Bonaventure has the KenPom lead, ranked 25th to LSU’s 29th, but LSU has played well against strong SEC opponents, compared to the Bonnies’ more mild Atlantic-10 competition. And I think when it comes down to the wire, scorers score, and LSU can score (and get to the free-throw line) better than St. Bonaventure.
Colorado (5) vs. Georgetown (12)
Pick: Georgetown
Why: Patrick Ewing has the Hoyas as a trendy upset choice for a reason. Georgetown went from being dead in the water to a team no one wants to face in the bracket, thanks in large part to guard Jahvon Blair, who has spurred his team to a miracle berth in the tournament. Colorado has been a steady team all season, but they struggled in the PAC-12 tournament when it mattered most, and the hungry Hoyas are poised to pounce. Georgetown is a better rebounding team and can use their feisty play to upend the Buffaloes in a big upset.
Florida State (4) vs. UNC Greensboro (13)
Pick: Florida State
Why: The Seminoles are a top-15 team in the country, and for good reason. They are extremely tall, led by 7’1 rim protector Balsa Koprivicia, and they can shoot the three-ball at a 39% clip — good for 7th in the country. Florida State outranks the Spartans in virtually every offensive category outside of rebounding, but I think the Seminole’s height can defend that fairly well.
BYU (6) vs. Michigan State (11)
Pick: Michigan State
Why: I think the Spartans can handle it. Michigan State has beaten three top-eight teams this year, and they are hitting their stride at the right time. BYU is a tall task — they were beating Gonzaga 53–41 at halftime during the West Coast Conference tournament championship — but Michigan State has nothing to lose now that they’ve secured a bid. Spartans in a nail-biter.
Texas (3) vs. Abilene Christian (14)
Pick: Texas
Why: The Longhorns and coach Shaka Smart are on top of the world. Texas has its best NCAA seed since 2008 and are Big-12 tournament champions for the first time in 25 years. They’d never swept Kansas in a season before now. Texas fans are happy right now, and the way their team is playing will continue to put a smile on their faces. Senior Matt Coleman III — the Big-12 tournament’s most outstanding player — has the Longhorns peaking and they don’t seem to be slowing down.
UConn (7) vs. Maryland (10)
Pick: Maryland
Why: The Terrapins played in the Big-10, which is kind of a boost to their resume by default. But don’t get me wrong, this is a true upset. Connecticut is a very good team, and honestly they outrank Maryland in almost every statistic I saw. This pick is a combination of gut feeling and the fact that Maryland has hung tough in a powerful conference. Terrapins by less than a hair.
Alabama (2) vs. Iona (15)
Pick: Alabama
Why: Because they’re a basketball school. Alabama is led by SEC Player of the Year Herbert Jones and SEC Coach of the Year Nate Oats. The Crimson Tide just won the SEC tournament and for the first time since 1991. Pitino, you did a good job with your Gaels, but Alabama is just too talented.
South Region
Baylor (1) vs. Hartford (16)
Pick: Baylor
Why: Duh. No disrespect to Hartford, but the Baylor Bears are for real. They have the third-highest effective field goal percentage and the highest three-point shooting percentage in the country (57.5% and 41.8%). For a Hartford team that hasn’t seen a team like this one yet, it’s going to be a shock. A quick one.
UNC (8) vs. Wisconsin (9)
Pick: UNC
Why: UNC embodies the idea of just kind of throwing up whatever shot attempt possible, and then whether or not it goes in just kind of doing it again until the Tar Heels eventually put it in. That’s because North Carolina embodies the offensive rebound. Big men Armando Bacot and Garrison Brooks can absolutely pound the glass, and the Tar Heels are averaging 14.0 offensive rebounds a game — easily the best in the nation. Coupled with Wisconsin’s mediocre defensive rebounding and Carolina’s solid paint scoring, this may be a long night for the Badgers.
Wisconsin is a great team, it’s just that this matchup is not in their favor. Even though they do shoot better than Carolina, UNC statistically out-steals and out-blocks the Badgers, and at the rate the Tar Heels get to the free-throw line I doubt Wisconsin can handle North Carolina’s size.
Villanova (5) vs. Winthrop (12)
Pick: Villanova
Why: Collin Gillespie is out for the season, and Villanova isn’t the same team without him. But they are still a very, very good team — they just aren’t as good. Still, the Wildcats will find a way to defeat the Winthrop Eagles, because they still have their top scorer Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, who averages 15.7 PPG. With a tremendous assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.69, these Wildcats are not sloppy and Jay Wright will coach his team to a win over the upstart Eagles.
Purdue (4) vs. North Texas (13)
Pick: North Texas
Why: The Boilermakers’ time is up. Purdue has been close with multiple big-time Big-10 foes this year, but has not quite ascended to their level. I can definitely see Purdue looking past the Mean Green and envisioning an easy second-round opponent. The undersized Mean Green play with heart and shoot better than Purdue, and when this game gets close late in the second half I think North Texas is going to smell blood in the water.
Texas Tech (6) vs. Utah State (11)
Pick: Texas Tech
Why: The Red Raiders are poised to follow-up their Final Four run from 2019, and Georgetown transfer Mac McClung has his new team have a strong defense and can run the court. Both squads have similar offensive results, putting up big numbers, but defensively Texas Tech takes the cake. The Aggies have a strong rim protector in Neemias Queta, but I don’t think the Red Raiders are going to be stopped at the rim, and Utah State just can’t pup up enough points.
Arkansas (3) vs. Colgate (14)
Pick: Arkansas
Why: I think some people already have Colgate penciled in as an auto-upset because of their “top-10 NET ranking.” If you look closely at all, however, you’ll see that the Razorbacks should be the clear favorite. Arkansas coach Eric Musselman is ready to defend Colgate’s three-point attack (40.2%) and the Razorbacks are going to have to stall the Raiders’ transition game, but I think Arkansas pulls out a tight win.
Florida (7) vs. Virginia Tech (10)
Pick: Virginia Tech
Why: Consistency. Neither of these teams really has that, and in a more wonky year than usual that doesn’t bode well. Good thing is, these teams get to play each other and hopefully find their balance again! Virginia Tech is going to do that here because the Hokies know how to beat teams that are better than them, and Florida (when healthy) is a better team. But Florida is not fully healthy and not fully confident, and for those reasons Virginia Tech is going to beat the Gators.
Ohio State (2) vs. Oral Roberts (15)
Pick: Ohio State
Why: Ohio State is a top team for good reason. The Buckeyes have outstanding offensive efficiency — scoring 1.109 points-per-possession — and considering they’ve played top-notch competition all year they seem all the more formidable. Oral Roberts has played multiple tournament teams tough (Oklahoma State, Arkansas, etc.) but Ohio State is coming on at the right time, and after nearly defeating Illinois for the Big-10 crown the Buckeyes are going to be hungry for another shot at greatness.
Midwest Region
Illinois (1) vs. Drexel (16)
Pick: Illinois
Why: Illinois isn’t the favorite to win it all, but maybe it should be. With a contender for Player of the Year in Ayo Dosunmu and dominant big man Kofi Cockburn, nobody wants to play the Fighting Illini. That includes Drexel, who has no kind of paint presence and is probably going to lose by 20-plus. Cool mascot, Dragons, but not this time.
Loyola Chicago (8) vs. Georgia Tech (9)
Pick: Loyola Chicago
Why: ACC Player of the Year Moses Wright will not play in this game, a huge blow to the Yellowjackets’ playoff dreams. Loyola Chicago is a better seed than when they went on their fantastic Final Four journey in 2018, and third-team All-American Cameron Krutwig will not back down from a fight. Georgia Tech does have ACC Defensive Player of the Year Jose Alvarado and Josh Pastner’s Yellowjackets are a scrappy bunch, and whatever the Ramblers throw at them I guarantee you Georgia Tech will never give up on themselves. But it won’t be enough without their best player, and Loyola Chicago wins.
Tennessee (5) vs. Oregon State (12)
Pick: Tennessee
Why: Oregon State was not supposed to be here, and while the Beavers made an admirable postseason trip thanks to winning the PAC-12 championship, the PAC-12 is probably the weakest Power 5 basketball conference and Oregon State doesn’t exactly have an impeccable resume. Tennessee is statistically better than Oregon State in nearly every single facet of the game, so this doesn’t feel unsafe at all.
Oklahoma State (4) vs. Liberty (13)
Pick: Liberty
Why: Cade Cunningham’s Cowboys, a Final Four choice for many, end their stellar season in the Round of 64. That’s my prediction, at least. Liberty has the fourth best assist-to-turnover ratio in the country, and can shoot well from the line and from the perimeter. Liberty could definitely blitz them out of the building from beyond the arc. Not that they will, they just could. But I don’t believe the Cowboys are going to just give away three-pointers, since they defend that very well and don’t give up many second chances. It’s really going to come down to Liberty continuing to roll (12-straight wins) or the Cowboys digging deep behind Cunningham. Flames in a mind-boggler.
San Diego State (6) vs. Syracuse (11)
Pick: Syracuse
Why: Did somebody say Buddy Boeheim? Coach Jim Boeheim’s son isn’t just on the team nepotistically — he might be their best player. Syracuse lost to Virginia on a buzzer-beater in the ACC tournament, but the Orange are hitting their stride. Syracuse has had highs and lows this year, but when they’re “on” they’ve proven they can beat anyone.
San Diego State is a tough opponent, as the Aztecs have a stingy defense and defend the perimeter well. And they can score in bursts and put an inexperienced team on blast in a flash. But Syracuse is no spring chicken, and I think the Orange are going to squeeze this one out.
Get it?
West Virginia (3) vs. Morehead State (14)
Pick: West Virginia
Why: West Virginia was pretty much the only team to play Gonzaga close all year (BYU’s first half counts, too). Bob Huggins’ teams traditionally rebound and defend well, and while their defense isn’t the highlight of their team the Mountaineers certainly can get to work in the paint. Morehead State won their conference tournament to get in thanks to good play on the interior, but I think Eagles freshman center Johni Broome is going to get outplayed inside by West Virginia’s athletes.
Clemson (7) vs. Rutgers (10)
Pick: Rutgers
Why: Clemson just lost to Miami in the ACC tournament, and is not exactly on the right track to postseason success. All-ACC second-team forward Aamir Simms can certainly shine for the Tigers and he’s shooting 40.7% from three, but at times the Tigers let him become a one-man show. For the Scarlet Knights, things got a little rough at times near the end of the season (especially that 51–72 loss to Nebraska, yikes), but Rutgers has defeated multiple tournament teams this year, including Illinois, so it’s not so far-fetched to think they could beat a Clemson squad that can underperform at the worst times. This is one of those games that I’m confident about now, though, and will definitely regret if the opposite is true.
Houston (2) vs. Cleveland State (15)
Pick: Cleveland State
Why: I am clinically insane. Seriously, this seems so dumb on paper. Houston is a “team of destiny” this year, winning the CUSA tournament and putting together an impressive 24–3 record. But looking back on their three losses, I noticed that each were to decent teams with a standout player. For the next edition of such a matchup, look no further than the Cleveland State Vikings. Senior Viking Torrey Patton averages 14.9 PPG and 8 rebounds on a squad now facing a giant.
This might age extraordinarily poorly considering how good Houston can be, but also remember that Cleveland State took Ohio State (another 2-seed) down to the wire all the way back in January. If the Vikings have improved from then, they could give the Cougars a real run for their money.
Round of 32
West Region
Gonzaga (1) vs. Oklahoma (8)
Pick: Gonzaga
Why: Oklahoma won the battle against Missouri only to face a giant. The Sooners will soon be goners against the mighty Bulldogs, who have pretty much destroyed all mid-tier opponents this season. That result holds. Oklahoma has loads of scoring potential, but Gonzaga actually has their even better scoring potential realized. With freshman Jalen Suggs and senior Corey Kispert dominating, Oklahoma won’t stand a chance.
Virginia (4) vs. Creighton (5)
Pick: Virginia
Why: Maybe I just trust Tony Bennett too much. Virginia’s Sam Hauser, Jay Huff, and Kihei Clark are going to do damage (if COVID-19 doesn’t get to them), and I trust the Cavaliers to consistently go against the grain. National Championship aspirations in 2018? Psyche. Doubted in 2019? National Champions. Boom.
Virginia may have won the ACC tournament if they were so unceremoniously forced out of it. They might have even been seeded higher. As for Creighton, their shooting is impressive but the hot water can sometimes get turned off. I think Virginia’s tough defense and bigger inside force (Huff) won’t be answerable by the Bluejays, and are going to tip the scales in favor of the Cavs.
USC (6) vs. Eastern Washington (14)
Pick: USC
Why: A lot of people may have the Trojans as a “dark horse” Final Four candidate. That may well be true, considering in this universe I’ve imagined they don’t have to play Kansas. The Eagles did defeat Kansas, but the better team does not always win in March. That being said, the better team wins this game. Cinderellas don’t last forever, and freshman star Evan Mobley is more than talented enough to will his team forward in a game where experience isn’t as important (hello, Colorado).
Iowa (2) vs. Oregon (7)
Pick: Iowa
Why: In my mind, this tournament is where Luka Garza solidifies himself as the POTY. Oregon can shoot well and is quite balanced, but their balance is going to be shredded by Iowa’s bevy of threes and inside dominance. Iowa can score, point blank. Oregon can score too, but not in a “point blank” way. With Garza and various shooters in tow, Iowa ought to win this game.
East Region
Michigan (1) vs. LSU (8)
Pick: Michigan
Why: People are doubting the Wolverines now, like they do during football season. Well, Michigan basketball is a different breed! LSU nearly won the SEC, but they don’t have the experience to handle Michigan, which can score at any and all angles and can shut down opponents. Juwan Howard is going to draw up the perfect plan to contain LSU’s Cameron Thomas, and that will put the Wolverines over the top.
Florida State (4) vs. Georgetown (12)
Pick: Florida State
Why: If my predictions hold true, I believe this may be one of the best games of the tournament. The Seminoles can shoot and the Hoyas can pound the glass, so it’ll really be a test of wills here. But Florida State’s rebounding — specifically RaiQuan Gray’s — will counteract Georgetown, and will allow the Seminoles to pull out the W.
Texas (3) vs. Michigan State (11)
Pick: Texas
Why: Boom Shaka-laka. This is the one that will put the Longhorns on everybody’s watchlist. Texas is going to feed off of Andrew Jones’ shot creation and the senior leadership that Michigan State lacks. Aaron Henry will have a good game for the Spartans, but after two games this third one is going to be even tougher for Michigan State, and Texas will swoop in for the final blow.
Alabama (2) vs. Maryland (10)
Pick: Alabama
Why: Nate Oats is going to capitalize on the Terrapins’ tiredness after Maryland somehow beats UConn, and this one should be over quickly. Alabama’s Herbert Jones and Jaden Shackleford will blow the roof off of Maryland here.
South Region
Baylor (1) vs. UNC (8)
Pick: Baylor
Why: A tough test for the Bears will force them to either become the team of destiny many believe them to be, or break them into the team that is currently riding a loss. UNC is going to give Baylor shooting looks, and it’s going to be up to the Bears to hit them. I think the Tar Heels and freshman guard Caleb Love give them a handful, but the Bears rise to the challenge in a show of strength — or rather accuracy.
Villanova (5) vs. North Texas (13)
Pick: North Texas
Why: The shoe fits! We’ve found our Cinderella! The Mean Green are going to keep their fighting-machine antics up against a Villanova squad that just found out Winthrop wasn’t the only tough low seed in the bracket. North Texas is going to have another slugfest on its hands, but the Wildcats just don’t have the internal rhythm without their healthy lineup, and the Mean Green are going to move on thanks to four double-digit scorers led by guard Javion Hamlet.
Arkansas (3) vs. Texas Tech (6)
Pick: Arkansas
Why: The Razorbacks will face no slight competition — literally — against Utah State. Texas Tech has stellar offense and defense . Freshman Razorback Moses Moody is going to be a handful to defend, though, and coach Eric Musselman is going to have an in-depth scouting report on the Red Raiders. And if Texas Tech gets into any kind of foul trouble, they won’t have the necessary star power to stay afloat.
Ohio State (2) vs. Virginia Tech (10)
Pick: Ohio State
Why: I believe the Hokies will give Ohio State a good fight, but the Buckeyes are going to gut this game out. Virginia Tech’s Keve Aluma will face a tough test inside with Ohio State’s EJ Liddell, and on the outside the Buckeyes are going to be sharp with Duane Washington Jr. at the helm. I think Virginia Tech is still going to suffer from post-COVID-break troubles, and Ohio State — the superior team — will win.
Midwest Region
Illinois (1) vs. Loyola Chicago (8)
Pick: Illinois
Why: I almost selected the Ramblers for the upset, but I just couldn’t picture them putting a full-40 together against the Fighting Illini. Illinois’ Kofi Cockburn is arguably even stronger in the paint than anyone Loyola Chicago has, so good luck stopping him. And Ayo Dosunmu and Andre Curbelo are going to present a new kind of problem for Loyola Chicago’s defense. I could’ve banked my hopes on another Rambler run like we saw in 2018, but I think Illinois is too balanced to lose this one.
Tennessee (5) vs. Liberty (13)
Pick: Tennessee
Why: If the Volunteers make it out of the first round as I think they will, they’ll face a Liberty team that shoots well. The difference will be defense, and if Tennessee can manage to cool the Flames I think the Volunteers’ efficiency and defensive aptitude will knock Liberty out. Don’t discount a buzzer-beater or a wacky ending in this game.
West Virginia (3) vs. Syracuse (11)
Pick: Syracuse
Why: Buddy Boeheim is going to just let ’em fly, folks. West Virginia will score in the paint, definitely — Syracuse has no real big body inside to stop the Mountaineers. But the Orange are going to rain threes down on West Virginia, and outside shooting could definitely force the Mountaineers to play from behind, which doesn’t suit them. I think Syracuse is going to feel a little bit of their 2016 vibes when they ran all the way to the Final Four and push through.
Rutgers (10) vs. Cleveland State (15)
Pick: Rutgers
Why: The magic has to end sometime, right? For the Scarlet Knights, it’s just getting started, though. Cleveland State will be ready for a battle but Houston will have sucked the life out of the Vikings, and Rutgers will be eager to slam it home on Cleveland State early and often. Rutgers’ brand of old-fashioned two-point-based basketball will find a groove and roll.
The Sweet Sixteen
West Region
Gonzaga (1) vs. Virginia (4)
Pick: Gonzaga
Why: Virginia has played admirably up to this point, but the Zags aren’t going to have trouble beating the Cavaliers. Gonzaga is primed to score against a Virginia defense that isn’t actually that good, and Virginia won’t be able to simply dominate against Drew Timme inside — Huff is good, but he’s not Timme good. The Cavaliers had a better-than-expected run, but it ends against the tournament favorites.
Iowa (2) vs. USC (6)
Pick: Iowa
Why: Great matchup. USC is going to try its best to face Iowa near the rim, as young forwards Evan Mobley, Isaiah Mobley, and Joshua Morgan (all above 6’10) are going to do the most to defend Luka Garza. Iowa can shoot, however, which is easily forgettable unless Joe Wieskamp and Jordan Bohannon are obliterating the scoreboard with threes. The Trojans are going to have to plug a defensive hole just to let another one open up, and for that reason (Iowa’s relative offensive unstoppability) I’m out on USC.
East Region
Michigan (1) vs. Florida State (4)
Pick: Michigan
Why: Michigan isn’t ranked no.2 in KenPom for no reason. They check all the boxes even without Livers (if he isn’t back at this point), and Hunter Dickinson is athletic enough and tall enough to get around Florida State’s interior defense. Michigan actually shoots even better than the Seminoles (48.3% to 47.4%), and that combined with excellent technical skills and Florida State’s tendency to play poorly in random games is going to propel the Wolverines to the Elite Eight.
Alabama (2) vs. Texas (3)
Pick: Texas
Why: Alabama is going to be a tough knock, but truthfully I think this game comes down to coaching experience. Shaka Smart has been here before, and Nate Oats has not. Texas absolutely needs to be able to shoot threes here to keep up with Alabama’s nation-leading volume of triples, but I think the Longhorns can do it, especially if junior guard Courtney Ramey can step up. Jericho Sims is going to be doing it all down low for Texas, and I think they’ll get by the Crimson Tide.
South Region
Baylor (1) vs. North Texas (13)
Pick: Baylor
Why: The story must end. Baylor simply shoots too often and too efficiently, and I think North Texas is going to be playing from behind all game long. No matter how much fire your team has, if the other team is simply putting nearly every shot into the basket you can’t do much else. Baylor busts it open.
Ohio State (2) vs. Arkansas (3)
Pick: Ohio State
Why: The Buckeyes keep rolling on against a talented opponent in Arkansas, but it won’t be easy. The Buckeyes are just better offensively, and Arkansas is better defensively, so it’ll take someone to step up and deliver. I think Justice Sueing might be the guy for the Buckeyes, and that will put them over a hard-nosed Razorbacks team.
Midwest Region
Illinois (1) vs. Tennessee (5)
Pick: Illinois
Why: This’ll be a blowout, and in Illinois’ favor. Tennessee won’t face a team like the Fighting Illini until they meet in the Sweet Sixteen, and will it be a wake-up call or what? The Volunteers simply won’t contain Kofi Cockburn or Ayo Dosunmu or Trent Frazier, and it’ll be “so-long” to Tennessee.
Rutgers (10) vs. Syracuse (11)
Pick: Rutgers
Why: The Orange can only be so hot for so long. Meanwhile, the Scarlet Knights can kind of pound the post for as long as they want without falling off (high-yield shot selection). Rutgers guards Ron Harper Jr. and Jacob Young can pick apart defenses, and Syracuse is going to finally play like an 11-seed.
The Elite Eight
West Region
Gonzaga (1) vs. Iowa (2)
Pick: Gonzaga
Why: Gonzaga already defeated Iowa earlier in the season, and I can just imagine this game playing out in the same way. Iowa scores, Gonzaga scores, both offenses so good, whatever. Gonzaga can actually draw up more unique plays to take their game to another offensive level, which will be tougher for the Hawkeyes to adjust to in-game. Luka Garza will perform well as always, but this time Drew Timme will be there to offset him a bit. Gonzaga stays undefeated.
East Region
Michigan (1) vs. Texas (3)
Pick: Texas
Why: Maybe it’s the “season of destiny” narrative that might bubble up for the Longhorns, but I think they’ll muck it out against a Michigan team that, frankly, I think is the better one. Texas, though, can turn it on and break through to the rim time and time again, and if Michigan can’t stop them they’ll have to hit as many threes as possible while avoiding foul trouble. That’s not easy, especially when facing a Longhorn team that shoots free throws fairly well and can pound the boards with rotation players Kai Jones and Greg Brown. The Wolverines haven’t fallen often this year, but after three other games the clock will wind down on Michigan.
South Region
Baylor (1) vs. Ohio State (2)
Pick: Baylor
Why: Baylor can shoot poorly here and still win, because Ohio State can shoot even worse. The Buckeyes have fallen to inferior opponents due to not showing up in the clutch, and Baylor isn’t an inferior opponent in the least. The Bears won’t need to be aggressive inside defenders because Jared Butler and MaCio Teague are going to slow down Duane Washington Jr. before he can get to the rim. The Buck(eye) stops here.
Midwest Region
Illinois (1) vs. Rutgers (10)
Pick: Rutgers
Why: Call it a hunch. Call it a serious mental issue. Call it whatever you want, but until I am brutally proven wrong (possibly very soon) I am rolling with Rutgers. Illinois is finally going to face an energized inside attack from the Scarlet Knights, who can size up with tall Illinois paint defenders. While Illinois did blow out Rutgers late in the year, Rutgers actually beat the Fighting Illini 91–88 when Illinois was ranked no.2 in the country. Guess who’s ranked no.2 in the country again? Rutgers in a miracle.
The Final Four
Gonzaga (1) vs. Texas (3)
Pick: Gonzaga
Why: The Zags are back in the Final Four, and without a doubt are the favorite to win it all now that Illinois has bit the dust of March. Texas will do their best to contain Gonzaga, but the Bulldogs won’t be stopped. Jalen Suggs will play well all tournament long, but this may be the game where his NBA prospects take a leap and he finds his niche against a Longhorns team that ranks 77th in the country in defensive efficiency.
Baylor (1) vs. Rutgers (10)
Pick: Baylor
Why: Rutgers has done enough, don’t you think? The Bears are going to rock them to sleep to the tune of top-10 assist and shooting percentage stats, while Rutgers will attempt to shoot twos to not fall behind by double-digits. I think Baylor is going to find a comfort zone and shoot the three-ball well, while Rutgers will find itself out of its depth against an opponent with title aspirations.
The National Championship
Gonzaga (1) vs. Baylor (1)
Pick: Baylor
Why: Remember that game that was supposed to be played between these two? Now we have it. In a year where so much has been up in the air, finally we have some consistency with the title game consisting of the top-two teams for nearly the entire season. Gonzaga has four All-Americans to Baylor’s three, but that matters very little here. Corey Kispert and Jared Butler will battle it out in a game for the ages, with scoring like crazy and wild defensive effort in strong schemes from Bears coach Scott Drew and Zags coach Mark Few.
This is going to be a tightly-contested, nail-biting, head-scratching game, but what else could we want? Both of these teams are statistically brilliant, and they know how to fight when it matters. But I think Baylor is going to remember losing in the Big-12 tourney, and that will to win a tournament is going to push them ahead by the slimmest of margins against a fierce Bulldogs team.
What a potential game and potential tournament bracket, and potential millions of dollars on the way. I’m doubtful, but hopeful!
Thanks for reading, and see you soon for my updates once the bloodbath of the Round of 64 completes and I have to scramble to adjust.
